On the Future(s) of Energy Communities in the German Energy Transition: A Derivation of Transformation Pathways

Active participation of citizens in the sustainable energy transition—particularly communities—is explicitly desired by European Union and considered vital for a successful transformation Europe’s system. Currently, communities, i.e., citizen-led groups generating from renewable sources can be found across Europe, though current numbers are small. However, it is expected that majority EU households will active some form generation 2050. In order to understand how such development could come about, if desired, ensured, we developed applied quasi-dynamic model using Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) approach with analyzed assessed transition detail. Data CIB was derived case studies, interviews, three surveys including two discrete choice experiments, expert workshops, complementary secondary data. A central consideration differentiated representation heterogeneity actors society their interactions. Main results obtained application possible pathways citizen Germany. key finding trends continue, citizen-driven based on communities unlikely successful. We conclude several framework conditions must change simultaneously status quo so different social energy. These include changes as abolition hindering regulations expansion financial support schemes focus lower socioeconomic groups. Furthermore, only combination conducive factors neighborhood cohesion influence, well favorable economic conditions, become an important player Germany’s future